How Donald, like Brexit, might win

This is not a story of polls. 

The reason the Donald side wins is because of a feeling of being disenfranchised. The people really feeling it are a large minority. They are prepared to vote anything seemingly wrong because the current version is more wrong. They cannot be convinced that their vote is a bad idea. They are also highly motivated to vote. 

Then we have another large minority's that 'knows' it's a bad idea and thinks the other side is stupid for considering their vote. This side had a dominant position in the media. They support Clinton. 

In the middle you have the largest portion of the pie that think Brexit or Trump is probably wrong, but also feel no affinity for the status quo. They are inclined to vote Clinton (Remain) and that is why the general public and polls predict a Clinton win. 

But. And for me this is critical. The more the Trump vote is described as stupid, the more the middle lean towards Trump. They increasingly see something of themselves being described as one of the stupid and move more towards the 'sod you' vote. The media line is not positive, but anti negative. It didn't work for Brexit and in the same way, it really could work for Trump. Paradoxically it makes more people see voting Trump as a reasonable vote. Because the more people are described as idiots for making that choice, the larger the pool of people that see themselves as included in that group. Ergo the bigger the voting potential for Trump. Fueled by the anti-Trump message. 

My evidence for this is zero. Other than the impact of the Gove line "we've had enough of experts". 

The reasons polls don't work for this is like shy Tories, although slightly different. They're not embarrassed to tell pollsters that they'll vote that way, but either embarrassed to tell themselves or haven't yet realised. 

In a way, it's worse for the US. Because so few want to actually vote for Hilary whereas many people did want to vote Remain. The pool of people positively wanting to vote Clinton is relatively small in the US. So the polls could be way off.